Nigeria’s CPI increased by 21.47% YoY in November 2022 from 21.09% in October 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) most current Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This growth may be ascribed to both a general rise in production costs and an increase in the cost of imports as a result of the ongoing currency depreciation (e.g. expansion in the cost of energy). On a MoM basis, the index increased by 1.39% as opposed to the 1.24% growth seen in the prior month.
Subsequently, food inflation increased to 24.13% in November 2022 from 23.72% the previous month. November’s food inflation rate was 1.40% on a monthly basis, which is 0.17% higher than the 1.23% figure registered in October. The increase in food inflation, according to the NBS, attributed to an increase in prices of some food items like Oil and fat, Fruits, Fish, and Tubers
In the meanwhile, the average annual rate of food inflation throughout the twelve-month period ending in November 2022 was 20.41%, which was a 0.21% decrease from the average annual rate of change reported in October 2021 (20.62%).
Also, on a year-over-year basis, core inflation, which excludes the costs of farm produce, was 18.24% in November 2022, up 0.48% from the 17.76% reported in October 2022. In November 2022, the core inflation rate was 1.67% on a monthly basis. When compared to the 0.93% observed in October 2022, this was up by 0.74%.
Particularly, the prices of gas, liquid fuel, solid fuel, passenger transport by air, Vehicles spare parts, and solid fuel saw the steepest spikes. Thinking forwards to December’s data, we expect the global economic downturn, further increases in food and energy prices, and other factors to further exacerbate the inflation rate. As a result, we anticipate a 30bps increase in headline inflation to 21.77% YoY for December 2022.