Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Climbs to 15.70% in February of 2022 Amid Fuel Scarcity

March 15, 2022

Macro-Economic Updates

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation data for the month of February 2022, which showed Nigeria’s inflation rate expanded to 15.70% YoY (by +10bps from 15.60% recorded in January 2022). We attribute the uptick to the rise in energy prices which was spurred by the supply of adulterated fuel as well as the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Also, the Headline index increased to 1.63% MoM in February 2022 (by +16ps from 1.47% recorded in January 2022).

Source: NBS, Alpha Morgan Research

Meanwhile, food inflation dropped to 17.11% YoY (by -2bps from 17.13% YoY recorded in January 2022). According to the report, the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food product, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Oils and fats and fruit.

On the other hand, core inflation rose to 14.01% in February 2022 (by +14bps from 13.87% YoY recorded in January 2022). The uptick was driven by an increase in the price of gas, fuel, and lubricants for personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, non-durable household goods, solid fuel, passenger transport by road, passenger transport by air, garments, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, major household appliances whether electric or not, wine, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and liquid fuel.

Looking into the month of March, we anticipate further expansion owing to the sustained tension between Ukraine and Russia. Consequently, we expect headline inflation to climb by 15bps to 15.85% YoY for March 2022.