Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Jumps to 17.71% in May of 2022, Highest in 11 Months

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation data for the month of May 2022, which showed Nigeria’s inflation rate expanded by 17.71% YoY (+89bps from 16.82% recorded in April 2022). According to the report, the uptick was as a result of the surge in food and energy prices. Also, the Headline index increased to 1.78% MoM in May 2022 (+2bps from 1.76% recorded in April 2022).

Source: NBS, Alpha Morgan Research

Subsequently, food inflation soared by 19.50% YoY (+113bps from 18.37% YoY
recorded in April 2022). According to the report, the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food products, Potatoes, yam, and other tubers, Wine, Fish, Meat, and Oils.

On a MoM basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.01% in May (+1bps from 2.00% recorded in April 2022). Also, core inflation rose by 14.90% in May 2022 (+72bps from 14.18% YoY recorded in April 2022).

The uptick was driven by an increase in the price of Gas, Liquid fuel, Garment, Solid fuel, Cleaning, Repair and Hire of clothing and Passenger transport by
road, passenger transport by air, garments, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, major household appliances whether electric or not, wine, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and liquid fuel.

Looking into the month of June, we anticipate further expansion in the inflation rate caused by the continuous increase in food prices and energy costs on following the continuous conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Consequently, we expect headline inflation to rise by 50bps to 18.21% YoY for June 2022.