Nigeria GDP – Sixth Consecutive Quarter of Growth Since Last Recession

Nigeria GDP – Sixth Consecutive Quarter of Growth Since Last Recession

The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics released GDP results for the First quarter of 2022, revealing that the economy grew by 3.11% YoY (88bps lower than the 3.98% recorded Q4 2021) and higher than the 0.51% growth rate recorded in the corresponding period of 2021 by 260 bps. This is the sixth consecutive quarter of growth following the negative growth recorded in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, respectively. However, on a QoQ basis, real GDP shrank by 14.66% in Q1 2022 in contrast to Q4 2021, representing a lower economic activity than the previous quarter.

The non-oil sector, which grew by 6.08% remained the major driver for the overall expansion, it is to be noted that the growth was faster relative to the previous quarter; 1.35% lower than the 4.73% YoY recorded in Q4 2021. This rate was higher by 5.28% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021.

Source: NBS, Alpha Morgan Research

The increase was driven mainly by expansions in Telecommunication (Information & Technology, Trade, Financial Institutions (Financial and Insurance), and Crop Production (Agriculture). According to the report, the non-oil sector contributed 94.13% to Nigeria’s GDP (1.62ppts higher than 92.51% contribution in the previous quarter).

On the other hand, the oil sector witnessed a contraction of 26.04% YoY (17.98% lower than the -8.06% recorded Q4 2021) as a result of the decline in oil production over the period. Also, the current rate revealed a decrease of 23.83% relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021.

For context, Nigeria recorded average daily oil production of 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2022, which is a drop of 0.07mbpd from 1.56mbpd recorded in Q4 2021. On a QoQ basis, the daily production rate in Q1 2022 was lower than the daily average production of 1.72mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.23mbpd and lower than the fourth quarter 2021 production volume of 1.50mbpd by 0.01mbpd.