Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Climbs to an 8-month High of 16.82% in April of 2022 Amid Soaring Fuel and Food Prices.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the inflation data for the month of April 2022, which showed Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 16.82% YoY (+90bps from 15.92% recorded in March 2022). According to the report, the uptick was as a result of the surge in food and energy prices. Also, the Headline index increased to 1.76% MoM in April 2022 (+2bps from 1.74% recorded in March 2022).

Source: NBS, Alpha Morgan Research

Food inflation climbed to 18.37% YoY (+117bps from 17.20% YoY recorded in Mar 2022). According to the report, the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food product, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Oils and fats, and fruit. On a MoM basis, the food sub-index increased to 2.00% in April (+1bps from 1.99% recorded in March 2022) Similarly, core inflation rose to 14.18% in April 2022 (+27bps from 13.91% YoY recorded in March 2022).

The uptick was driven by an increase in the price of gas, fuel, and lubricants for personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, non-durable
household goods, solid fuel, passenger transport by road, passenger transport by air, garments, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, major household appliances whether electric or not, wine, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and liquid fuel.

Looking into the month of May, we anticipate further expansion in the inflation rate caused by the continuous increase in food prices and energy costs owing to the sustained tension between Ukraine and Russia.

Consequently, we expect headline inflation to climb by 50bps to 17.32% YoY for May 2022.